Erdogan ‘win’ and ‘loss’ scenarios assessed by analysts ahead of June 24 polling day in Turkey

Bne IntelliNews runs a piece compiling analysts’ takes not only on the outcome of Sunday’s combination presidential-parliamentary elections in Turkey, but on the economic implications of the vote. Erdogan is widely predicted to win the presidential election, whether or not he wins outright in the first round of voting. Meanwhile, there is some doubt Erdogan’s AKP will retain control of the parliament, though Turkey is now ditching a parliamentary system for an executive presidency, so the parliament is of lesser importance. Unlike in previous election years, analysts are concerned about the economic prospects of Erdogan’s rule, and the markets could react negatively following an Erdogan victory. More inflation and a continuously weak lira are expected, as following the election, Erdogan will pursue a looser fiscal and monetary policy.


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